Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kauno Žalgiris vs TransINVEST Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
3/12/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 3VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris46%
×Draw26%
TransINVEST Vilnius28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris
1.52
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.13

Kauno Žalgiris creates 35% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 29 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.73
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.28

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris
0.98
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.31

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw
72%
Kauno Žalgiris or TransINVEST Vilnius
74%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
54%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
23%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
78%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
45%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
20%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
68%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
31%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
62%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.98 · 127 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.73 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.28 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more
46%
level
26%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
28%

Kauno Žalgiris at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris 2–1 TransINVEST Vilnius

Kauno Žalgiris beat TransINVEST Vilnius 2-1 in A Lyga on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas in Ringaudai.