Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai

Kauno Žalgiris

Preview

15:45

Džiugas Telšiai

9/6/2026

A Lyga · Round 30

Big match

53%

Kauno Žalgiris

model favours

53%25%23%

Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris53%

×Draw25%

Džiugas Telšiai23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kauno ŽalgirisExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Kauno Žalgiris

1.64

Džiugas Telšiai

0.98

Kauno Žalgiris creates 67% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 100 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris

1.75

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris

0.96

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw

77%

Kauno Žalgiris or Džiugas Telšiai

75%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

47%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

28%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

81%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

49%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

23%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

62%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

26%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

70%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.96 · 126 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.75 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

53%

level

25%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

23%

Kauno Žalgiris at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

When Kauno Žalgiris score first, they win 80% of the time
69% of Kauno Žalgiris’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — Kauno Žalgiris 1 vs Džiugas Telšiai 4
Kauno Žalgiris win just 35% against the top half (vs 62% against the bottom)
37% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute
39% of Kauno Žalgiris’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Žalgiris

DWW

Telšiai

WDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff