Kauno Žalgiris II 1–4 Panevėžys II: Result & Stats

Kauno Žalgiris II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Panevėžys II

6/8/2023

1 Lyga · Round 13SM Tauras Stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II41%

×Draw23%

Panevėžys II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kauno Žalgiris IIExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.66

Kauno Žalgiris II

1.76

Panevėžys II

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 81 away

1.33

creates per match

1.47

1.85

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II

1.33

Panevėžys II

1.47

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II

1.85

Panevėžys II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Panevėžys II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw

63%

Kauno Žalgiris II or Panevėžys II

77%

Draw or Panevėžys II

59%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+

21%

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals

83%

Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals

52%

Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals

26%

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

81%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

49%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

53%

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.33 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.76

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more

41%

level

23%

Panevėžys II scores more

37%

Kauno Žalgiris II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff