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Kattaqurgon vs Respublika FA — Pro League A 2026

Kattaqurgon
Kattaqurgon
Preview
13:00
Respublika FA
Respublika FA
9/7/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 18
42%
Kattaqurgon
model favours
42%29%29%
1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kattaqurgon42%
×Draw29%
Respublika FA29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kattaqurgon
1.21
Respublika FA
0.96

Kattaqurgon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kattaqurgon
1.25
Respublika FA
1.17

allows per match

Kattaqurgon
0.75
Respublika FA
1.17

finishing

Kattaqurgon+0.00on par
Respublika FA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kattaqurgon ↓

Respublika FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kattaqurgon or draw
71%
Kattaqurgon or Respublika FA
71%
Draw or Respublika FA
58%

Winning margin

Kattaqurgon wins by 2+
18%
Respublika FA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kattaqurgon 1+ goals
70%
Kattaqurgon 2+ goals
34%
Kattaqurgon 3+ goals
12%
Respublika FA 1+ goals
62%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
25%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kattaqurgon (draw refunded)
59%
Respublika FA (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kattaqurgon at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Respublika FA away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kattaqurgon attack 1.25 + Respublika FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Respublika FA attack 1.17 + Kattaqurgon defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kattaqurgon scores more
42%
level
29%
Respublika FA scores more
29%

Kattaqurgon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kattaqurgon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kattaqurgon
LWDDW
FA
WWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kattaqurgon vs Respublika FA — Match Preview

Kattaqurgon face Respublika FA on September 7, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.