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Kattaqurgon vs Gazalkent — Pro League A 2026

Kattaqurgon
Kattaqurgon
Preview
13:00
Gazalkent
Gazalkent
8/21/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 16
40%
Gazalkent
model favours
33%26%40%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kattaqurgon33%
×Draw26%
Gazalkent40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kattaqurgon
1.23
Gazalkent
1.38

Gazalkent creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kattaqurgon
1.25
Gazalkent
2.00

allows per match

Kattaqurgon
0.75
Gazalkent
1.20

finishing

Kattaqurgon+0.00on par
Gazalkent+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kattaqurgon ↓

Gazalkent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kattaqurgon or draw
60%
Kattaqurgon or Gazalkent
74%
Draw or Gazalkent
67%

Winning margin

Kattaqurgon wins by 2+
14%
Gazalkent wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kattaqurgon 1+ goals
71%
Kattaqurgon 2+ goals
35%
Kattaqurgon 3+ goals
13%
Gazalkent 1+ goals
75%
Gazalkent 2+ goals
40%
Gazalkent 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kattaqurgon (draw refunded)
45%
Gazalkent (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kattaqurgon at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Gazalkent away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kattaqurgon attack 1.25 + Gazalkent defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gazalkent attack 2.00 + Kattaqurgon defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kattaqurgon scores more
33%
level
26%
Gazalkent scores more
40%

Gazalkent at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gazalkent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kattaqurgon
LWDDW
Gazalkent
WWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kattaqurgon face Gazalkent (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with Kattaqurgon hosting Gazalkent. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.