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Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
Preview
10:00
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
5/9/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium
Big match
42%
Kashiwa Reysol
model favours
42%28%31%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol42%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.31
Machida Zelvia
1.08

Kashiwa Reysol creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.50
Machida Zelvia
1.34

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
0.83
Machida Zelvia
1.11

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.50scores more
Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
69%
Kashiwa Reysol or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
58%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
19%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
73%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
38%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
14%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
66%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
29%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
58%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.50 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
42%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
31%

Kashiwa Reysol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 40% of Kashiwa Reysol’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Style contrast — Kashiwa Reysol play Attack-heavy, Machida Zelvia Defensively solid
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack-heavy
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
54%PossessionBiggest gap45%
81%Pass accuracy78%
13.7Shots12.9
1.64xG1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kashiwa ReysolMachida Zelvia

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Kashiwa Reysol
1
Draws
4
Machida Zelvia
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 13%
0–10–11–00–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Reysol
LWWWW
Zelvia
DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kashiwa Reysol face Machida Zelvia (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Kashiwa Reysol hosting Machida Zelvia. Match starts May 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kashiwa Reysol host Machida Zelvia at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.