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Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
3/2/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol56%
×Draw23%
Machida Zelvia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.84
Machida Zelvia
1.04

Kashiwa Reysol creates 77% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 127 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
2.57
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
0.76
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
79%
Kashiwa Reysol or Machida Zelvia
77%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
44%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
32%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
84%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
55%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
28%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
65%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
28%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
73%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 2.57 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.84

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
56%
level
23%
Machida Zelvia scores more
21%

Kashiwa Reysol at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia

Kashiwa Reysol beat Machida Zelvia 1-0 in J2 League on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa).