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Kashiwa Reysol vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
Preview
11:00
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
3/10/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium
Big match
51%
Kashiwa Reysol
model favours
51%25%25%

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol51%
×Draw25%
Kyoto Sanga25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.65
Kyoto Sanga
1.08

Kashiwa Reysol creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.50
Kyoto Sanga
1.33

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
0.83
Kyoto Sanga
1.79

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.50scores more
Kyoto Sanga+0.50scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
75%
Kashiwa Reysol or Kyoto Sanga
75%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
49%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
27%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
81%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
49%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
23%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
66%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
29%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
67%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.50 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
51%
level
25%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
25%

Kashiwa Reysol at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 40% of Kashiwa Reysol’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack-heavy
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
54%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy71%
13.7Shots12.8
1.64xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kashiwa ReysolKyoto Sanga

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Kashiwa Reysol
5
Draws
2
Kyoto Sanga
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 70%
0–16–23–31–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Reysol
LWWWW
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kashiwa Reysol host Kyoto Sanga

March 10, 2027: Kashiwa Reysol take on Kyoto Sanga in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kashiwa Reysol host Kyoto Sanga at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.