Kashiwa Reysol 1–1 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kyoto Sanga

4/29/2023

J1 League · Round 10SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol49%

×Draw25%

Kyoto Sanga26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.08

Kashiwa Reysol

1.57

Kyoto Sanga

1.08

Kashiwa Reysol creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.28

0.89

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.50

Kyoto Sanga

1.28

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

0.89

Kyoto Sanga

1.65

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.33scores more

Kyoto Sanga+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

74%

Kashiwa Reysol or Kyoto Sanga

75%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

51%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

25%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

79%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

46%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

21%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

66%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

29%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

65%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 6 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.50 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.28 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

49%

level

25%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

26%

Kashiwa Reysol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff