Kashima 1–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

Kashima

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

6/18/2019

AFC Champions League · 8th FinalsKashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kashima50%

×Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Kashima

1.54

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.98

Kashima creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.10

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kashima

1.57

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.10

allows per match

Kashima

0.86

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

76%

Kashima or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

50%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

79%

Kashima 2+ goals

45%

Kashima 3+ goals

20%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

62%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

68%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.57 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.10 + Kashima defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kashima scores more

50%

level

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

24%

Kashima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff