Kasetsart FC 2–1 Trat FC: Result & Stats

Kasetsart FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Trat FC

Mateus Totô 81', 10' (pen)

Mohamed Essam 51'

1/28/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 21Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Kasetsart FC42%

×Draw26%

Trat FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasetsart FCExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.19

Kasetsart FC

1.42

Trat FC

1.19

Kasetsart FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 71 away

1.29

creates per match

1.18

1.20

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Kasetsart FC

1.29

Trat FC

1.18

allows per match

Kasetsart FC

1.20

Trat FC

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw

68%

Kasetsart FC or Trat FC

74%

Draw or Trat FC

58%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

20%

Trat FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

76%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

41%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

17%

Trat FC 1+ goals

70%

Trat FC 2+ goals

33%

Trat FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

57%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 118 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.29 + Trat FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Trat FC attack 1.18 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more

42%

level

26%

Trat FC scores more

32%

Kasetsart FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Mateus TotôPenalty

46'

N. Hayiarsan← T. Navanit

46'

Y. Lertlam← P. Phatthaphon

51'

Mohamed Essam

69'

P. Seerot← P. Jarunai

72'

N. Namthip← N. Hayiarsan

78'

Stuart James Wilson Wark← P. Hanratana

81'

Mateus Totô

85'

P. Rodnakkaret← S. Vongchiengkham

90+4'

K. Daokrajai← Adalgisio Pitbull

Kasetsart

Trat

25

4

5

99

2

▼

Phatthaph

9

▼

Vongchien

7

▼

11

33

10

14

⚽

62

20

5

14

6

▼

Navanit

30

Omogba

22

Samakorn

10

▼

Pitbull

9

⚽2

Totô

19

Romphopak

98

▼

Hanratana

Manager: W. Srimaka

46'▲N. Hayiarsan←▼T. Navanit

72'▲N. Namthip←▼N. Hayiarsan

78'▲Stuart James Wilson Wark←▼P. Hanratana

90+4'▲K. Daokrajai←▼Adalgisio Pitbull

Kasetsart FC substitutes

57Hayiarsan21Namthip16Wark4Daokrajai13Chaidee17Jaroentat25Piamplai27Nathwaranon28Jaoprakam

Manager: K. Daoreung

46'▲Y. Lertlam←▼P. Phatthaphon

69'▲P. Seerot←▼P. Jarunai

85'▲P. Rodnakkaret←▼S. Vongchiengkham

Trat FC substitutes

8Lertlam19Seerot22Rodnakkaret13Ornchaiphum17Chai-Yan21Chuekamut30Yoskrai38Nilnoy39Janchaichit

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 2–1 Trat FC

Kasetsart FC beat Trat FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on January 28, 2023.

Goals: Mateus Totô (10' pen, 81'), Mohamed Essam (51').

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.

Kasetsart FC vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 2–1 Trat FC