Kasetsart FC 0–0 Pattaya United: Result & Stats

Kasetsart FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pattaya United

10/22/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 10Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kasetsart FC48%

×Draw26%

Pattaya United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasetsart FCExpected goals in this matchPattaya United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

Kasetsart FC

1.50

Pattaya United

1.03

Kasetsart FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 43 away

1.32

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kasetsart FC

1.32

Pattaya United

0.86

allows per match

Kasetsart FC

1.21

Pattaya United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Pattaya United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw

74%

Kasetsart FC or Pattaya United

74%

Draw or Pattaya United

52%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

24%

Pattaya United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

78%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

44%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

19%

Pattaya United 1+ goals

64%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

28%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

65%

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Pattaya United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pattaya United attack 0.86 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more

48%

level

26%

Pattaya United scores more

26%

Kasetsart FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff