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Kasetsart FC vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
2 – 3
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
3/15/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 6TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kasetsart FC40%
×Draw26%
Lampang FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.43
Lampang FC
1.30

Kasetsart FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
66%
Kasetsart FC or Lampang FC
74%
Draw or Lampang FC
60%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
19%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
76%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
42%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
17%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
73%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
37%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
54%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
40%
level
26%
Lampang FC scores more
34%

Kasetsart FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Lampang FC

Lampang FC beat Kasetsart FC 3-2 in Thai League 2 on March 15, 2019.

The match was played at TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok).