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Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Karviná
Karviná
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
11/25/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 16Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Karviná35%
×Draw26%
Sigma Olomouc39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.27
Sigma Olomouc
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 119 away

creates per match

Karviná
1.17
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

Karviná
1.45
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
61%
Karviná or Sigma Olomouc
74%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
65%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
15%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
72%
Karviná 2+ goals
36%
Karviná 3+ goals
14%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
74%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
39%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
47%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 100 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 1.17 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Karviná defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karviná scores more
35%
level
26%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
39%

Sigma Olomouc at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc

Sigma Olomouc beat Karviná 2-0 in Czech Liga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Městský Stadión in Karviná.