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Karviná vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Karviná
Karviná
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Plzen
Plzen
12/18/2021Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 19Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Karviná29%
×Draw26%
Plzen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.13
Plzen
1.46

Plzen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 119 away

creates per match

Karviná
1.16
Plzen
1.48

allows per match

Karviná
1.45
Plzen
1.10

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
55%
Karviná or Plzen
74%
Draw or Plzen
71%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
12%
Plzen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
68%
Karviná 2+ goals
31%
Karviná 3+ goals
11%
Plzen 1+ goals
77%
Plzen 2+ goals
43%
Plzen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
40%
Plzen (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 101 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 1.16 + Plzen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Plzen attack 1.48 + Karviná defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karviná scores more
29%
level
26%
Plzen scores more
45%

Plzen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Karviná 0–1 Plzen

Plzen beat Karviná 1-0 in Czech Liga on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Městský Stadión in Karviná.