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Karviná U19 vs Pardubice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Karviná U19
Karviná U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
8/30/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 8Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Karviná U1947%
×Draw22%
Pardubice U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná U19
1.91
Pardubice U19
1.52

Karviná U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 77 away

creates per match

Karviná U19
2.16
Pardubice U19
1.53

allows per match

Karviná U19
1.52
Pardubice U19
1.65

finishing

Karviná U19+0.00on par
Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná U19 ↓

Pardubice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Karviná U19 or draw
69%
Karviná U19 or Pardubice U19
78%
Draw or Pardubice U19
53%

Winning margin

Karviná U19 wins by 2+
26%
Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Karviná U19 1+ goals
85%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
57%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
30%
Pardubice U19 1+ goals
78%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
45%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Pardubice U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná U19 attack 2.16 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.91

Pardubice U19 attack 1.53 + Karviná U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karviná U19 scores more
47%
level
22%
Pardubice U19 scores more
31%

Karviná U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Karviná U19 3–0 Pardubice U19

Karviná U19 beat Pardubice U19 3-0 in 1. Liga U19 on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.