Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karviná U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Karviná U19
Karviná U19
CANC
08:30
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
4/24/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 13UMT Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Karviná U1943%
×Draw22%
Baník Ostrava U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná U19
1.88
Baník Ostrava U19
1.67

Karviná U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 77 away

creates per match

Karviná U19
2.16
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Karviná U19
1.52
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Karviná U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Karviná U19 or draw
65%
Karviná U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
78%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
57%

Winning margin

Karviná U19 wins by 2+
23%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karviná U19 1+ goals
85%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
56%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
29%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
81%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
50%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná U19 attack 2.16 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Karviná U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karviná U19 scores more
43%
level
22%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
35%

Karviná U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karviná U19 face Baník Ostrava U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Karviná U19 hosting Baník Ostrava U19. Match starts April 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Karviná U19 host Baník Ostrava U19 at UMT Kovona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.