Karonga United vs Mitundu Baptist

Karonga United

Preview

12:30

Mitundu Baptist

1/25/2027

Super League · Round 27

58%

Karonga United

model favours

58%28%15%

Karonga United and Mitundu Baptist have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

70%

under 2.5 goals

31%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karonga United58%

×Draw28%

Mitundu Baptist15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karonga UnitedExpected goals in this matchMitundu Baptist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.54

Karonga United

1.38

Mitundu Baptist

0.54

Karonga United creates 156% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 4 away

1.26

creates per match

0.25

0.83

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Karonga United

1.26

Mitundu Baptist

0.25

allows per match

Karonga United

0.83

Mitundu Baptist

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Mitundu Baptist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw

85%

Karonga United or Mitundu Baptist

72%

Draw or Mitundu Baptist

42%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+

29%

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals

75%

Karonga United 2+ goals

40%

Karonga United 3+ goals

16%

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals

42%

Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals

10%

Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)

80%

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Karonga United scores more

58%

level

28%

Mitundu Baptist scores more

15%

Karonga United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

United

LDLWL

Baptist

DWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff