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Karonga United vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CIVO United
CIVO United
B. Katinji 45+4'
9/10/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Karonga United43%
×Draw29%
CIVO United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.21
CIVO United
0.92

Karonga United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 73 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.24
CIVO United
1.00

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
CIVO United
1.18

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
72%
Karonga United or CIVO United
71%
Draw or CIVO United
57%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
19%
CIVO United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
70%
Karonga United 2+ goals
34%
Karonga United 3+ goals
12%
CIVO United 1+ goals
60%
CIVO United 2+ goals
23%
CIVO United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
60%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.83 · 75 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.24 + CIVO United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

CIVO United attack 1.00 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karonga United scores more
43%
level
29%
CIVO United scores more
28%

Karonga United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'
B. Katinji

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karonga United vs CIVO United

CIVO United beat Karonga United 1-0 in Super League on September 10, 2022.

Goals: B. Katinji (45+4').

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.