Karonga United vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026
Super League · Round 14
Chitipa United score first in only 6% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 65+ matches
Karonga United55%
Chitipa United18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Karonga United creates 112% more chances
Season form · 81 home / 65 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Karonga United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches
Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Karonga United attack 1.26 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40
Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Karonga United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both teams score in only 25% of Chitipa United’s matches
- 69% of Chitipa United’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Be Forward Wanderers
Nyasa Big Bullets
Kamuzu Barracks
Silver Strikers
Adelaide Blue Eagles
TN Stars
Civil Sporting
Mighty Tigers
MzuniKaronga United
Moyale BarracksChitipa United
Ntopwa
Masters Security
Mlatho Mponela
Dwangwa UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Karonga United host Chitipa United on Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 12:30. The match is part of the Super League 2026/2027 season.
Karonga United face Chitipa United (Super League)
Super League returns with Karonga United hosting Chitipa United. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.