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Karonga United vs Blue Eagles — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
Preview
12:30
Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
12/5/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22
Big match
40%
Karonga United
model favours
40%31%29%

Karonga United win just 23% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Karonga United40%
×Draw31%
Blue Eagles29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.11
Blue Eagles
0.90

Karonga United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 67 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.26
Blue Eagles
0.97

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
Blue Eagles
0.96

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
71%
Karonga United or Blue Eagles
69%
Draw or Blue Eagles
60%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
17%
Blue Eagles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
67%
Karonga United 2+ goals
30%
Karonga United 3+ goals
10%
Blue Eagles 1+ goals
59%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
23%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
58%
Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karonga United scores more
40%
level
31%
Blue Eagles scores more
29%

Karonga United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Karonga United sit 13, Blue Eagles 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
LDLWL
Eagles
WLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Karonga United host Blue Eagles

December 5, 2026: Karonga United take on Blue Eagles in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.