Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karnobat vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
1 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
11/21/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Karnobat48%
×Draw23%
Sokol Markovo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.78
Sokol Markovo
1.31

Karnobat creates 36% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 98 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
72%
Karnobat or Sokol Markovo
77%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
52%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
26%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
83%
Karnobat 2+ goals
53%
Karnobat 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
73%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
38%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
63%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karnobat scores more
48%
level
23%
Sokol Markovo scores more
28%

Karnobat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Karnobat 1–0 Sokol Markovo

Karnobat beat Sokol Markovo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.