Karnobat 2–1 Nesebar: Result & Stats

Karnobat

FT

2 – 1

Nesebar

4/2/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Karnobat28%

×Draw24%

Nesebar49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarnobatExpected goals in this matchNesebar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.73

Karnobat

1.25

Nesebar

1.73

Nesebar creates 38% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 99 away

1.13

creates per match

1.55

1.91

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Karnobat

1.13

Nesebar

1.55

allows per match

Karnobat

1.91

Nesebar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par

Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Nesebar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw

51%

Karnobat or Nesebar

76%

Draw or Nesebar

72%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+

11%

Nesebar wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals

71%

Karnobat 2+ goals

36%

Karnobat 3+ goals

13%

Nesebar 1+ goals

82%

Nesebar 2+ goals

52%

Nesebar 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)

36%

Nesebar (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karnobat scores more

28%

level

24%

Nesebar scores more

49%

Nesebar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff