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Karnobat vs Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
2 – 1
Haskovo
Haskovo
11/17/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 15Gradski stadion (Karnobat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Karnobat37%
×Draw25%
Haskovo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.38
Haskovo
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 47 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Haskovo
0.87

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Haskovo
1.62

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
63%
Karnobat or Haskovo
75%
Draw or Haskovo
63%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
17%
Haskovo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
75%
Karnobat 2+ goals
40%
Karnobat 3+ goals
16%
Haskovo 1+ goals
75%
Haskovo 2+ goals
40%
Haskovo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
50%
Haskovo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Karnobat scores more
37%
level
25%
Haskovo scores more
37%

Karnobat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Karnobat 2–1 Haskovo

Karnobat beat Haskovo 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Karnobat).