Karnobat 0–2 Gigant Saedinenie: Result & Stats

Karnobat

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gigant Saedinenie

10/8/2022

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Karnobat31%

×Draw25%

Gigant Saedinenie44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarnobatExpected goals in this matchGigant Saedinenie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.54

Karnobat

1.27

Gigant Saedinenie

1.54

Gigant Saedinenie creates 21% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 136 away

1.13

creates per match

1.17

1.91

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Karnobat

1.13

Gigant Saedinenie

1.17

allows per match

Karnobat

1.91

Gigant Saedinenie

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw

56%

Karnobat or Gigant Saedinenie

75%

Draw or Gigant Saedinenie

69%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+

13%

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals

72%

Karnobat 2+ goals

36%

Karnobat 3+ goals

14%

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

79%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

45%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)

42%

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karnobat scores more

31%

level

25%

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

44%

Gigant Saedinenie at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff