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Karnobat vs Asenovets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
1 – 2
Asenovets
Asenovets
10/29/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Karnobat47%
×Draw22%
Asenovets31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.87
Asenovets
1.49

Karnobat creates 26% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 109 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Asenovets
1.07

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Asenovets
2.61

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Asenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
69%
Karnobat or Asenovets
78%
Draw or Asenovets
53%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
26%
Asenovets wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
85%
Karnobat 2+ goals
56%
Karnobat 3+ goals
29%
Asenovets 1+ goals
77%
Asenovets 2+ goals
44%
Asenovets 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
60%
Asenovets (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.87

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karnobat scores more
47%
level
22%
Asenovets scores more
31%

Karnobat at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Karnobat 1–2 Asenovets

Asenovets beat Karnobat 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.