Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kariobangi Sharks vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
FT
2 – 2
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
2/11/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 2Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks42%
×Draw28%
Vihiga United FC30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.28
Vihiga United FC
1.02

Kariobangi Sharks creates 25% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.39
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.25
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
70%
Kariobangi Sharks or Vihiga United FC
72%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
58%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
19%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
37%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
14%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
64%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
27%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
59%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 145 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.39 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
42%
level
28%
Vihiga United FC scores more
30%

Kariobangi Sharks at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariobangi Sharks vs Vihiga United FC

Kariobangi Sharks and Vihiga United FC drew 2-2 in FKF Premier League on February 11, 2018.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).