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Kariobangi Sharks vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
FT
1 – 3
Tusker
Tusker
K. Machika 40'
L. Namanda 87', 79'
G. Ogutu 69'
12/6/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks34%
×Draw27%
Tusker39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.19
Tusker
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 143 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.38
Tusker
1.33

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.27
Tusker
1.01

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
61%
Kariobangi Sharks or Tusker
73%
Draw or Tusker
66%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
14%
Tusker wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
70%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
33%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
12%
Tusker 1+ goals
73%
Tusker 2+ goals
37%
Tusker 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
46%
Tusker (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 139 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tusker attack 1.33 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
34%
level
27%
Tusker scores more
39%

Tusker at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
K. Machika
69'
G. Ogutu
79'
L. Namanda
87'
L. Namanda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Kariobangi Sharks 1–3 Tusker

Tusker beat Kariobangi Sharks 3-1 in FKF Premier League on December 6, 2019.

Goals: K. Machika (40'), G. Ogutu (69'), L. Namanda (79', 87').

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.