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Kariba vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kariba
Kariba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yadah
Yadah
7/1/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13Nyamhunga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Kariba44%
×Draw32%
Yadah24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariba
1.09
Yadah
0.71

Kariba creates 54% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 85 away

creates per match

Kariba
0.85
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

Kariba
0.60
Yadah
1.34

finishing

Kariba+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariba ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kariba or draw
76%
Kariba or Yadah
68%
Draw or Yadah
56%

Winning margin

Kariba wins by 2+
18%
Yadah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kariba 1+ goals
66%
Kariba 2+ goals
30%
Kariba 3+ goals
10%
Yadah 1+ goals
51%
Yadah 2+ goals
16%
Yadah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kariba (draw refunded)
65%
Yadah (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariba attack 0.85 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Yadah attack 0.82 + Kariba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kariba scores more
44%
level
32%
Yadah scores more
24%

Kariba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kariba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kariba 2 – 1 Yadah

Kariba beat Yadah 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Nyamhunga Stadium in Kariba.