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Karela vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
11/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Karela46%
×Draw31%
Hearts of Oak23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.14
Hearts of Oak
0.72

Karela creates 58% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 108 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Karela or draw
77%
Karela or Hearts of Oak
69%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
54%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
20%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
68%
Karela 2+ goals
32%
Karela 3+ goals
11%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
51%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
16%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
66%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karela scores more
46%
level
31%
Hearts of Oak scores more
23%

Karela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Karela 1–1 Hearts of Oak

Karela and Hearts of Oak drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.