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Karbach vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Karbach
Karbach
FT
2 – 2
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
9/25/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Karbach34%
×Draw23%
TuS Koblenz44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbach
1.56
TuS Koblenz
1.81

TuS Koblenz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

creates per match

Karbach
1.79
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Karbach
1.77
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Karbach or draw
56%
Karbach or TuS Koblenz
77%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
66%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+
16%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals
79%
Karbach 2+ goals
46%
Karbach 3+ goals
21%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
84%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
54%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)
43%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karbach scores more
34%
level
23%
TuS Koblenz scores more
44%

TuS Koblenz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karbach vs TuS Koblenz

Karbach and TuS Koblenz drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg in Karbach.