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Karbach vs FV Engers 07 — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Karbach
Karbach
CANC
14:00
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
3/13/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Karbach37%
×Draw22%
FV Engers 0741%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbach
1.75
FV Engers 07
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

creates per match

Karbach
1.79
FV Engers 07
1.96

allows per match

Karbach
1.77
FV Engers 07
1.71

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Karbach or draw
59%
Karbach or FV Engers 07
78%
Draw or FV Engers 07
63%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+
19%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals
83%
Karbach 2+ goals
52%
Karbach 3+ goals
25%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
84%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
55%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)
47%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karbach scores more
37%
level
22%
FV Engers 07 scores more
41%

FV Engers 07 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karbach vs FV Engers 07 — Match Preview

Karbach face FV Engers 07 on March 13, 2021 in this Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Karbach host FV Engers 07 at Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.