Kapaz 2–1 Şamaxı FK: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Kapaz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Şamaxı FK

9/18/2022

Premyer Liqa · Round 7Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Kapaz37%

×Draw27%

Şamaxı FK37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KapazExpected goals in this matchŞamaxı FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

Kapaz

1.28

Şamaxı FK

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 90 away

0.99

creates per match

0.94

1.62

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kapaz

0.99

Şamaxı FK

0.94

allows per match

Kapaz

1.62

Şamaxı FK

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kapaz+0.00on par

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kapaz ↓

Şamaxı FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kapaz or draw

63%

Kapaz or Şamaxı FK

73%

Draw or Şamaxı FK

63%

Winning margin

Kapaz wins by 2+

16%

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kapaz 1+ goals

72%

Kapaz 2+ goals

37%

Kapaz 3+ goals

14%

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

72%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

37%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kapaz (draw refunded)

50%

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kapaz at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kapaz attack 0.99 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Şamaxı FK attack 0.94 + Kapaz defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kapaz scores more

37%

level

27%

Şamaxı FK scores more

37%

Kapaz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kapaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff