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Kapaz vs Sabah FA — Premyer Liqa 2019

Kapaz
Kapaz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
12/3/2023Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 15Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Kapaz26%
×Draw25%
Sabah FA48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kapaz
1.08
Sabah FA
1.56

Sabah FA creates 44% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 109 away

creates per match

Kapaz
0.99
Sabah FA
1.51

allows per match

Kapaz
1.62
Sabah FA
1.17

finishing

Kapaz+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kapaz ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kapaz or draw
52%
Kapaz or Sabah FA
75%
Draw or Sabah FA
74%

Winning margin

Kapaz wins by 2+
10%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kapaz 1+ goals
66%
Kapaz 2+ goals
29%
Kapaz 3+ goals
10%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
79%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
46%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kapaz (draw refunded)
35%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kapaz at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kapaz attack 0.99 + Sabah FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sabah FA attack 1.51 + Kapaz defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kapaz scores more
26%
level
25%
Sabah FA scores more
48%

Sabah FA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kapaz 0 – 2 Sabah FA

Sabah FA beat Kapaz 2-0 in Premyer Liqa on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Tovuz.