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Kapaz vs Araz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Kapaz
Kapaz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Araz
Araz
2/5/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 21Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kapaz34%
×Draw27%
Araz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kapaz
1.21
Araz
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kapaz
0.99
Araz
1.00

allows per match

Kapaz
1.62
Araz
1.42

finishing

Kapaz+0.00on par
Araz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kapaz ↓

Araz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kapaz or draw
61%
Kapaz or Araz
73%
Draw or Araz
66%

Winning margin

Kapaz wins by 2+
14%
Araz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kapaz 1+ goals
70%
Kapaz 2+ goals
34%
Kapaz 3+ goals
12%
Araz 1+ goals
73%
Araz 2+ goals
38%
Araz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kapaz (draw refunded)
47%
Araz (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kapaz at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Araz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kapaz attack 0.99 + Araz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Araz attack 1.00 + Kapaz defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kapaz scores more
34%
level
27%
Araz scores more
39%

Araz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Araz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Kapaz 3–1 Araz

Kapaz beat Araz 3-1 in Premyer Liqa on February 5, 2024.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Qəbələ.