Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kansas City W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2026

Kansas City W
Kansas City W
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
3/16/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 1CPKC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansas City W47%
×Draw25%
Portland Thorns W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansas City W
1.63
Portland Thorns W
1.20

Kansas City W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

creates per match

Kansas City W
1.82
Portland Thorns W
1.33

allows per match

Kansas City W
1.06
Portland Thorns W
1.44

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par
Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Portland Thorns W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw
72%
Kansas City W or Portland Thorns W
75%
Draw or Portland Thorns W
53%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+
25%
Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals
80%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
48%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
22%
Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
70%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
34%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)
63%
Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.82 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Portland Thorns W attack 1.33 + Kansas City W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kansas City W scores more
47%
level
25%
Portland Thorns W scores more
28%

Kansas City W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kansas City W vs Portland Thorns W

Kansas City W beat Portland Thorns W 5-4 in NWSL Women on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at CPKC Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.