Kansas City W 3–1 Houston Dash W: Result & Stats

Kansas City W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Houston Dash W

7/23/2023

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 3Children's Mercy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kansas City W54%

×Draw23%

Houston Dash W23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansas City WExpected goals in this matchHouston Dash W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.10

Kansas City W

1.80

Houston Dash W

1.10

Kansas City W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.70

creates per match

0.80

1.40

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Kansas City W

1.70

Houston Dash W

0.80

allows per match

Kansas City W

1.40

Houston Dash W

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Houston Dash W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw

77%

Kansas City W or Houston Dash W

77%

Draw or Houston Dash W

46%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+

30%

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals

83%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

54%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

27%

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

67%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

30%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

70%

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.70 + Houston Dash W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.80

Houston Dash W attack 0.80 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kansas City W scores more

54%

level

23%

Houston Dash W scores more

23%

Kansas City W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff