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Kansas City W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Kansas City W
Kansas City W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
6/15/2023NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 2Children's Mercy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kansas City W53%
×Draw24%
Chicago Red Stars W23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansas City W
1.67
Chicago Red Stars W
1.02

Kansas City W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kansas City W
1.70
Chicago Red Stars W
0.64

allows per match

Kansas City W
1.40
Chicago Red Stars W
1.64

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw
77%
Kansas City W or Chicago Red Stars W
76%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
47%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+
28%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals
81%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
50%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
23%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
64%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
27%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)
69%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.70 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chicago Red Stars W attack 0.64 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kansas City W scores more
53%
level
24%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
23%

Kansas City W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup: Kansas City W 4–0 Chicago Red Stars W

Kansas City W beat Chicago Red Stars W 4-0 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on June 15, 2023.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.