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Kano Pillars vs Enyimba — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
CANC
00:00
Enyimba
Enyimba
1/12/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 14Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Kano Pillars56%
×Draw28%
Enyimba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.38
Enyimba
0.59

Kano Pillars creates 134% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 130 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Enyimba
0.74

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Enyimba
1.22

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Enyimba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
84%
Kano Pillars or Enyimba
72%
Draw or Enyimba
44%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
28%
Enyimba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
75%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
40%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
16%
Enyimba 1+ goals
45%
Enyimba 2+ goals
12%
Enyimba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
78%
Enyimba (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
56%
level
28%
Enyimba scores more
16%

Kano Pillars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kano Pillars face Enyimba (NPFL)

NPFL returns with Kano Pillars hosting Enyimba. Match starts January 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kano Pillars host Enyimba at Sani Abacha Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.