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Kano Pillars vs Abia Warriors — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
CANC
00:00
Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
4/26/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 33Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Kano Pillars61%
×Draw25%
Abia Warriors14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.54
Abia Warriors
0.58

Kano Pillars creates 166% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 128 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Abia Warriors
0.73

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Abia Warriors
1.55

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Abia Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
86%
Kano Pillars or Abia Warriors
75%
Draw or Abia Warriors
39%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
33%
Abia Warriors wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
79%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
45%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
20%
Abia Warriors 1+ goals
44%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
12%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
81%
Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
61%
level
25%
Abia Warriors scores more
14%

Kano Pillars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kano Pillars face Abia Warriors (NPFL)

NPFL returns with Kano Pillars hosting Abia Warriors. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kano Pillars host Abia Warriors at Sani Abacha Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.