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Kanazawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
5/19/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 14Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kanazawa32%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.21
V-varen Nagasaki
1.40

V-varen Nagasaki creates 16% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 143 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
V-varen Nagasaki
1.48

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
59%
Kanazawa or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
68%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
14%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
70%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
34%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
12%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
75%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
41%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
44%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kanazawa scores more
32%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
41%

V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kanazawa vs V-varen Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki beat Kanazawa 1-0 in J2 League on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).