Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kanazawa vs Tochigi SC — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
8/4/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 26Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kanazawa39%
×Draw29%
Tochigi SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.18
Tochigi SC
1.04

Kanazawa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 148 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Tochigi SC
0.76

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Tochigi SC
1.20

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Tochigi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
68%
Kanazawa or Tochigi SC
71%
Draw or Tochigi SC
61%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
17%
Tochigi SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
69%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
33%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
12%
Tochigi SC 1+ goals
65%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
28%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
55%
Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kanazawa scores more
39%
level
29%
Tochigi SC scores more
32%

Kanazawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 1–1 Tochigi SC

Kanazawa and Tochigi SC drew 1-1 in J2 League on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).