Kanazawa 1–1 Montedio Yamagata: Result & Stats

Kanazawa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montedio Yamagata

8/19/2020

J2 League · Round 13Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kanazawa33%

×Draw27%

Montedio Yamagata39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanazawaExpected goals in this matchMontedio Yamagata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.29

Kanazawa

1.16

Montedio Yamagata

1.29

Montedio Yamagata creates 11% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 170 away

1.16

creates per match

1.27

1.31

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Kanazawa

1.16

Montedio Yamagata

1.27

allows per match

Kanazawa

1.31

Montedio Yamagata

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Montedio Yamagata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw

61%

Kanazawa or Montedio Yamagata

73%

Draw or Montedio Yamagata

67%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+

14%

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals

69%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

32%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

11%

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals

72%

Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals

37%

Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

46%

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.27 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kanazawa scores more

33%

level

27%

Montedio Yamagata scores more

39%

Montedio Yamagata at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff