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Kanazawa vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
3/17/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 4Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kanazawa32%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.14
Machida Zelvia
1.31

Machida Zelvia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
60%
Kanazawa or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
68%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
13%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
68%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
32%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
11%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
73%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
38%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
44%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kanazawa scores more
32%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
40%

Machida Zelvia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kanazawa vs Machida Zelvia

Kanazawa beat Machida Zelvia 6-1 in J2 League on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).