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Kanazawa vs Kamatamare Sanuki — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
3/4/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kanazawa49%
×Draw26%
Kamatamare Sanuki25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.50
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.00

Kanazawa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Kamatamare Sanuki
0.69

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.85

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Kamatamare Sanuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
75%
Kanazawa or Kamatamare Sanuki
74%
Draw or Kamatamare Sanuki
51%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
25%
Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
78%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
44%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
19%
Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
63%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
26%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
66%
Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Kamatamare Sanuki away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.69 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kanazawa scores more
49%
level
26%
Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
25%

Kanazawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 0–1 Kamatamare Sanuki

Kamatamare Sanuki beat Kanazawa 1-0 in J2 League on March 4, 2018.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).