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Kanazawa vs Fagiano Okayama — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
10/24/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 29Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kanazawa35%
×Draw28%
Fagiano Okayama37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.12
Fagiano Okayama
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 146 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Fagiano Okayama
1.03

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Fagiano Okayama
1.08

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
63%
Kanazawa or Fagiano Okayama
72%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
65%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
14%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
67%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
31%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
10%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
69%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
33%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
48%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.03 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kanazawa scores more
35%
level
28%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
37%

Fagiano Okayama at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 0–0 Fagiano Okayama

Kanazawa and Fagiano Okayama drew 0-0 in J2 League on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Stadium in Kanazawa.