Kanazawa 0–0 Ehime FC: Result & Stats | J2 League

Kanazawa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ehime FC

6/15/2019

J2 League · Round 18Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Kanazawa43%

×Draw26%

Ehime FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanazawaExpected goals in this matchEhime FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

Kanazawa

1.40

Ehime FC

1.15

Kanazawa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 123 away

1.16

creates per match

0.98

1.31

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Kanazawa

1.16

Ehime FC

0.98

allows per match

Kanazawa

1.31

Ehime FC

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Ehime FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw

69%

Kanazawa or Ehime FC

74%

Draw or Ehime FC

57%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+

20%

Ehime FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals

75%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

41%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

17%

Ehime FC 1+ goals

68%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

32%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

58%

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kanazawa scores more

43%

level

26%

Ehime FC scores more

31%

Kanazawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff