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Kanazawa vs Blaublitz Akita — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blaublitz Akita
Blaublitz Akita
4/21/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 9Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Kanazawa37%
×Draw28%
Blaublitz Akita36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.22
Blaublitz Akita
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 101 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Blaublitz Akita
1.08

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Blaublitz Akita
1.28

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Blaublitz Akita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
64%
Kanazawa or Blaublitz Akita
72%
Draw or Blaublitz Akita
63%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
16%
Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
70%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
34%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
12%
Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals
70%
Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals
34%
Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
51%
Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.08 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kanazawa scores more
37%
level
28%
Blaublitz Akita scores more
36%

Kanazawa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kanazawa vs Blaublitz Akita

Kanazawa beat Blaublitz Akita 2-1 in J2 League on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Stadium in Kanazawa.