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Kanazawa vs Albirex Niigata — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
6/22/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 19Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Kanazawa32%
×Draw27%
Albirex Niigata41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.17
Albirex Niigata
1.36

Albirex Niigata creates 16% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 105 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Albirex Niigata
1.41

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Albirex Niigata
1.19

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Albirex Niigata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
59%
Kanazawa or Albirex Niigata
73%
Draw or Albirex Niigata
68%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
13%
Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
69%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
33%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
11%
Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
74%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
39%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
44%
Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Albirex Niigata attack 1.41 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kanazawa scores more
32%
level
27%
Albirex Niigata scores more
41%

Albirex Niigata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 2–1 Albirex Niigata

Kanazawa beat Albirex Niigata 2-1 in J2 League on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).