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Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
CANC
15:00
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
5/23/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 30Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina58%
×Draw22%
Urania Baška Voda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.92
Urania Baška Voda
1.04

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 85% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.72
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.28
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw
80%
Kamen Ivanbegovina or Urania Baška Voda
78%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
42%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
34%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
85%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
57%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
30%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
65%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
28%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
74%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.92

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
58%
level
22%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
20%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kamen Ivanbegovina vs Urania Baška Voda — Match Preview

Kamen Ivanbegovina face Urania Baška Voda on May 23, 2020 in this Third NL - Jug fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kamen Ivanbegovina host Urania Baška Voda at Igralište NK Kamen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.